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Brain trust

I had the pleasure of meeting the great Jill Sands at AmericasMart a few weeks back. She’s a noted home and gift trend-watcher, whose frequently-spot-on observations/projections are chronicled in a newsletter that is an offshoot of her Web site, www.thetrendforecaster.com. Here’s her take on what is likely the most pressing issue of the day, the ecomony:

“… As prices drop consumers keep waiting for them to drop farther. The ‘I’ll wait until next month and prices may be lower’ mind-set. Consumers are also waiting to feel financially comfortable once again … that their homes and other investments are safe.

“It’s time for consumers to realign their wants and needs. The economy might be down the tubes, but our human nature still likes nice things to feel good about … to wear nice clothes and for our homes to reflect our ‘good taste.’ Putting ‘fun’ into functional assuages the guilt trips … The guilt can be eased with the purchase of functional and eco-friendly items.

“The challenge is upon us all. Are you a mass merchant or a service retailer? How do you add excitement, pizzazz and irresistibility to functional items so the consumers can’t resist? Times have changed, and to succeed we all must dig deep within to our reserves. Science says that the average human uses only 10 percent of their intelligence. This is the time to begin utilizing the other 90 percent.”

Smart person, that Jill Sands. We would all do well to listen to what she has to say.

--Yale

Expect more Black Friday shoppers, poll says

More shoppers will hit stores this Black Friday than last year, according to Consumer Reports’ latest holiday shopping poll. More than a quarter (26%) of consumers plan to shop the day after Thanksgiving, up 5 percentage points from the 21% that shopped on Black Friday in 2007.

“Black Friday is the quintessential American shopping day,” said Tod Marks, senior project editor of Consumer Reports’ Tightwad Tod Blog. “And no matter how dismal the economy, you can count on the stores being filled to capacity. The big question this year, however, is how much consumers are going to cut back. Retailers are holding their collective breath and keeping their fingers crossed.”

-- Sarah

Expect consumers to rein in Christmas spending. No, really.

I’ve been writing about small business and retail for more than six years now. And each of those years I’ve dutifully reported on various holiday spending forecasts. The predictions are sometimes too rosy; other times too dire.

Here are some numbers I’ve come across so far:

Holiday sales for 2009 will be the weakest in 17 years, according to TNS Retail Forward. The research group’s forecast is for 1.5% growth, slightly above the 1.2% growth seen back in 1991.

The National Retail Federation projects that sales will rise 2.2% this year to $470.4 billion. This gain would fall well below the 10-year average of 4.4% holiday sales growth and would represent the slowest growth since 2002, when holiday sales rose 1.3%.

For once, I think these industry-watchers are right on target.

We’ll definitely be watching every cent in the Martinez household. A lot of that is due to life changes. We’ve got a new baby, which changes everything. But beyond that, we’re dealing with challenges most other consumers are facing. Namely, high grocery bills and pain at the pump.

We won’t, however, be scaling back on our typical holiday purchases at the garden center. We get a real Christmas tree every year. It’s a tradition. I’ll pony up the money for that before I pay for another plastic toy to go under it. And I’ll probably get the two blooming amaryllis that go on the kitchen counter and table.

This Saturday I plan to attend Kid’s Day at my local garden center where I’ll purchase the requisite pumpkins and mums for the front porch. Again, it’s all about maintaining tradition. I guess you can look upon this as anecdotal evidence that garden retail is recession-proof--to a degree.

It might be a good idea to promote your store as the place where customers can find the trappings of a down-home, traditional Christmas. I think this message will resonate with consumers during these difficult economic times.

-- Sarah

Analysts foresee weak holiday sales

Holiday sales for 2009 will be the weakest in 17 years, according to TNS Retail Forward. The research group’s forecast is for 1.5% growth, slightly above the 1.2% growth seen back in 1991.

“The holiday sales forecast represents a weakening from modest 3rd quarter growth as the boost from tax rebates runs out,” said Frank Badillo, sr. economist for TNS Retail Forward. “The benefit from a letup in gasoline prices will be overwhelmed by the impact of rising unemployment, tighter credit and other hardships on households. And, unfortunately, the trends in economic conditions offer no sign of an impending recovery.”

-- Sarah

High gas prices are a plus for local retailers

High gas prices have meant more business for small, local retailers, Lansing State Journal reported. Consumers are opting to shop close to home, rather than make a trek to far-flung big boxes. “Because of the cost of gas, they're thinking now that, 'OK, I may save a couple of dollars, but I'm spending a lot more than that in fuel costs.' So, they are making the decision to stay closer to home,” said Jim Cicorelli, owner of Frank's Food Mart stores in Charlotte and Potterville, Mich.

-- Sarah

An underground gardening movement? It could happen

Have you heard about the underground restaurant movement? An underground restaurant forms when a group of like-minded people gather for what they consider a more authentic eating experience.

At regular restaurants, each party sits in its own island, detached from fellow diners and with no participation in the menu beyond selecting which dish to eat.

Each underground restaurant experience has its own (pardon me) flavor. It might be led by a cookbook writer or even a chef. The event often gains followers/patrons via social networks in a fashion not too different from raves of years past, where a time and location is selected and only those with an inside track need know.

Yet underground restaurants have just as much in common with hobby clubs in that the fees are calculated to cover costs, not make a profit.

It’s a passion for food that dictates the menu. It could be an all-local sourced menu. Or all organically grown. The New York Times had an article last week about a Brooklyn group that travelled to the country and slaughtered its own boar, with an on-the-spot butchering lesson.

How would this work in gardening?
Reading up about this movement made me think about Gen X and Gen Y. (Most underground restaurant aficionados are in their 20s and 30s.) This group is obviously not averse to digging deeply into a hobby. The more rich the detail, the more stripped-down the experience, the more rewarding it is.

Makes you think about how you can create this type of enthusiasm for gardening, doesn’t it? Can’t you see it? Field trips to growers to learn how IPM really works. Pruning lessons in the demonstration gardens with attendees playing landscapers. A series of seminars that move from one customer’s garden to the next, each host receiving suggested garden plans and help to put it in place.

What kind of underground garden group would you form?

-- Carol

Consumers opt for essentials only

Discretionary spending has dwindled over the past few months, according to many sources. More money is going toward essentials while “extras” get pushed aside.

• Navigating a downturn. Adweek
• Consumers eschew credit cards. USA Today
• Stimulus effect diluted. National Retail Federation

-- Sarah

Terrain lives up to its hype

CHADDS FORD, Pa. – Count me as a fan of Terrain at Styer’s, the new garden-retail concept from the Urban Outfitters/Anthropologie/Free People people. I took the 40-minute drive from Philadelphia to check out the nursery, which opened in April.

Please indulge my stream-of-consciousness impressions on Terrain:

It’s easy to see how shoppers can spend two hours here. There’s always one more hut to check out, one more greenhouse, another found object to discover. It’s not the type of place where you’d dash in to pick up a flat of petunias and a jar of Miracle-Gro. There’s a Depot within a stone’s throw for that.

First thing I noticed is all the staff. On a Thursday morning, there were tons of people working. Enough to make any garden center owner cringe. But these folks were all busy straightening, sweeping, deadheading, even replacing plants in the greenwall.

These employees must have gone to the Disney school of customer service. They’re all cheery, and every one, without fail, greeted me as they passed. “Good morning, let me know if there’s anything I can help you find,” they’d say. Some would mention about last night’s thunderstorms and inquire whether I lost power or not.

The barista makes a mean iced coffee.

Plants: good quality, average selection. Some benches were not as full as you might think they’d be, but then again it’s after the Fourth of July and things have slowed down. You see all the big suppliers represented here: Monrovia, Conard-Pyle, Proven Winners, Imperial Nurseries. Every plant tag shows the grower, and many are local or regional.

Employees seem proud of their young nursery and look to be having a good time working here. I saw two guys fist bump one another as they passed in a greenhouse aisle.

About those found objects: it can be tricky to tell if certain pieces are for sale or just elements in one of the over-the-top displays.

The DIY gift wrap station is a cool idea.

I’d love to come back this winter to see what the Terrain merchandising team does for the holidays.

Terrain faces some of the same problems as every garden center: the day after a heavy rainstorm, I had to maneuver around puddles of muddy water in the gravel parking lot; carts were jumbled up in one corner of the tree yard; and hand-written tags had faded in the elements.

Can this concept spread across the U.S.? Maybe. Does every garden retailer need to be worried about a Terrain intrusion. Probably not. If you’re in an area like Long Island, Midtown Atlanta or Silicon Valley, worry. Ames, Iowa, nah.

-- Kevin

Gardeners take issue with un-recyclable pots

Plastic horticulture waste has got some gardeners hacked off, the Chicago Tribune reported. Pots, flats and trays not coded for recycling are leading to frustration among customers. The story outlines some steps large growers and retailers are taking to cut down on plastic entering landfills.

-- Sarah

Instead of an express lane, how about a no-donations lane?

“Would you like to apply up for a credit card? Just for applying you get your choice of any Webkinz on that wall over there.”

“No, thanks.”

“Would you like to donate $1 to juvenile diabetes?”

“Um, no.”

“We’re having a special promotion today. If you donate to fight prostate cancer, you get a free bottle of water.”

“I’ll pass.”

The grocery checker was holding my receipt ransom until she worked her way through this litany of questions that she no doubt had repeated dozens of times during her shift. If it hadn’t been for the sour look on my face, she may have continued through an entire United Way of charitable organizations.

Seriously, all I want to do is pay for my 15-items-or-less groceries and get out of this store. It’s blazing hot outside and I want to get home and pull on my baggy shorts and Homer Simpson T-shirt.

I think it’s noble and grand that national retailers support charitable causes, but can they not do it on the backs of their already-squeezed patrons? If the fat cats in Corporate think it’s vital to raise funds for these causes, why don’t they write a check off of the bottom line?

Next time I’m bombarded by these supermarket appeals, I think I’ll counter with one of my own. “My church is having this fundraiser, see, and for every $10 you donate, your name goes in the hat for a chance to win fabulous prizes. How many can I put you down for?”

-- Kevin