A couple of somewhat-hopeful reports about retail sales were released this week.
National Retail Federation reported that retail sales beat expectations two months in a row. According to NRF, retail industry sales for February (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) rose 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted from January and decreased 5.0 percent unadjusted over last year. Retail industry sales for January were revised up from 0.5 percent growth to 1.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month.
February retail sales released by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) decreased 12.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year and 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month.
“While we are seeing some growth in consumer spending, it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue,” said Rosalind Wells, NRF chief economist. “Given the state of the economy, NRF is still expecting year-over-year sales declines through the first half of the year with a slight turnaround at the end of 2009.”
In other news, the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index rose in February, once again driven by strong growth in real wages and a decline in energy prices. The Index—which takes into account tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices—increased to 1.53 percent, from an upwardly revised gain of 1.27 percent a month ago.
“Despite increasing purchasing power, consumers are still generally holding back. They do, however, seem to be breaking out of their winter doldrums by cautiously spending on items like spring clothing and certain electronics,” said Stacy Janiak, vice chairman and U.S. retail leader, Deloitte LLP. “Understanding that consumers are spending selectively, retailers should consider sharpening the connections with their customers—not just to drive traffic today but to build deep customer loyalty for the future.”
-- Sarah
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