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Expect consumers to rein in Christmas spending. No, really.

I’ve been writing about small business and retail for more than six years now. And each of those years I’ve dutifully reported on various holiday spending forecasts. The predictions are sometimes too rosy; other times too dire.

Here are some numbers I’ve come across so far:

Holiday sales for 2009 will be the weakest in 17 years, according to TNS Retail Forward. The research group’s forecast is for 1.5% growth, slightly above the 1.2% growth seen back in 1991.

The National Retail Federation projects that sales will rise 2.2% this year to $470.4 billion. This gain would fall well below the 10-year average of 4.4% holiday sales growth and would represent the slowest growth since 2002, when holiday sales rose 1.3%.

For once, I think these industry-watchers are right on target.

We’ll definitely be watching every cent in the Martinez household. A lot of that is due to life changes. We’ve got a new baby, which changes everything. But beyond that, we’re dealing with challenges most other consumers are facing. Namely, high grocery bills and pain at the pump.

We won’t, however, be scaling back on our typical holiday purchases at the garden center. We get a real Christmas tree every year. It’s a tradition. I’ll pony up the money for that before I pay for another plastic toy to go under it. And I’ll probably get the two blooming amaryllis that go on the kitchen counter and table.

This Saturday I plan to attend Kid’s Day at my local garden center where I’ll purchase the requisite pumpkins and mums for the front porch. Again, it’s all about maintaining tradition. I guess you can look upon this as anecdotal evidence that garden retail is recession-proof--to a degree.

It might be a good idea to promote your store as the place where customers can find the trappings of a down-home, traditional Christmas. I think this message will resonate with consumers during these difficult economic times.

-- Sarah

Armstrong opens Gen X-inspired garden center

Armstrong Garden Centers, a California-based chain with 33 stores, opened a new location last week designed to appeal to new homeowners in their late 20s to early 40s.

The store design is open and airy, according to a company press release, and incorporates popular decor colors like fern green, sky blue and butter-yellow. Lifestyle displays are found throughout the store, along with bold signage to provide inspiration and ideas.

“Most Gen Xers haven’t grown up gardening,” said Monte Enright, Armstrong’s executive vice president. “They value their outdoor space but need inspiration and simple solutions.”

-- Sarah

Photo of the week

 

Another interesting character seen at City Escape Garden Center & Design Studio, Chicago.

We're looking for photos of critters (real or inanimate) that inhabit your store. Drop us a line and share some images!

Tough times call for positive action

I’m currently working on Garden Center Magazine’s annual trends article for our December issue. It will come as no surprise that the economy plays a major role in the story.

Consumers aren’t the only ones running scared these days. I’ve had a number of phone calls this week from retailers who’ve talked worriedly about how to approach the coming months. There’s a feeling, even among established and prosperous retailers, that if they don’t figure out just the right course, their stores will fail.

Caution in such times is smart. But I’m worried that retailers are giving fear too much sway. Focusing on worst case scenarios can lead to reckless rather than wise spending cuts.

There’s no way to give these times a rosy glow, but I do believe there are smart steps retailers can take to ensure they survive.

Take action to lessen your financial risks
Strengthen your marketing plan. Garden retailers have an advantage over other specialty retailers. Most specialty retailers are seen as purveyors of indulgent items. Think Origins. Think Starbucks. In the mind of consumers, our industry lies closer to necessity than luxury.

Consider creating a campaign that equates gardening with self reliance. No one is truly poor if they can grow their own food. And good looking yards with lots of colorful seasonal annuals make a house stand out from the others on the real estate market.

Put effort into getting free publicity. Marketing budgets are often cut during tough times. Even though every business expert out there says it’s foolish to do that, when retailers are poring over their P&Ls, trying to find where to make cuts, trimming that category often proves irresistible. If you must cut back (but never, never eliminate), consider the various methods you’ve read about on getting free or low cost publicity -- writing articles for the paper, creating an opinionated blog (on gardening, of course), fine tuning your e-mail newsletters or sending ideas to magazine or television news reporters.

Talk to all your important vendors. Vendors are probably more frightened of the current crisis than you. Many retailers have deeply cut their purchase orders.

If the vendor is important to you, you now have more negotiating power. I’m not advocating fleecing suppliers. Instead, if you let a major vendor know you plan to continue buying from them this year and that you have the financial resources to do so, you can gain enough clout to reduce common problems like not getting your orders completed and awkward shipping schedules.

Predict cash flow problems and create an action plan. Lines of credit will be hit hard in the coming months. Bank loans that were easy to get during tight cash flow months may not be so plentiful now. You aren’t alone in this dilemma, so start talking to retailers about how to survive those lean months. If you are financially sound and can prove it, talk to vendors about longer terms.

-- Carol

Waterloo Gardens to close newly opened store

Pennsylvania-based Waterloo Gardens plans to close its store in Warminster, according to an e-mail from company president Bobby LeBoutillier.

“Due to current economic events, Waterloo Gardens Inc. is restructuring and consolidating its resources,” the message said. “The recently opened Warminster store will be closing after the holidays.”

The location opened in 2007, in what used to be a Pathmark supermarket. Waterloo Gardens rehabilitated the site, transforming it into an upscale home and garden center. Waterloo Gardens locations in Devon, Exton and Wilmington, Pa., will continue to operate.

-- Sarah

Ooh, that smells so earth-friendly …

So, you say, you sell green candles? Well, now you can also sell “green” candles.

Midwest of Cannon Falls has introduced Go Green by Colonial Candle, purportedly the first 100-percent recycled wax candle collection that is produced in a recognized “green” facility.

The Go Green collection also features recycled glass containers as part of the mix, which includes four nature-inspired fragrances:

• Rain — featuring fragrance notes of green, water, flower, fruit, musk and amber.
• Bamboo — featuring fragrance notes of green tea, lime, cassis, verbena, bamboo and woods.
• Clean — featuring fragrance notes of crisp florals, fruit and amber.
• Fresh — featuring fragrance notes of water, citrus, florals and sandalwood.

Given that I received news of aforementioned candles via a press release and not through a product sample, I can’t personally vouch for all of those fragrance notes. Heck, I can’t even vouch for what a fragrance note is. But I do suspect that all these pro-environment candle products smell swell.

-- Yale

Analysts foresee weak holiday sales

Holiday sales for 2009 will be the weakest in 17 years, according to TNS Retail Forward. The research group’s forecast is for 1.5% growth, slightly above the 1.2% growth seen back in 1991.

“The holiday sales forecast represents a weakening from modest 3rd quarter growth as the boost from tax rebates runs out,” said Frank Badillo, sr. economist for TNS Retail Forward. “The benefit from a letup in gasoline prices will be overwhelmed by the impact of rising unemployment, tighter credit and other hardships on households. And, unfortunately, the trends in economic conditions offer no sign of an impending recovery.”

-- Sarah

Photo of the week

Enjoy a double-dose of fall beauty this week! Submitted by Hoerr Nursery, Peoria, Ill.

Got some fall beauty shots to share? Do send them our way.

Industry associations launch careers Web site

The American Nursery & Landscape Association, the Professional Landcare Network, the American Society for Horticultural Science and 28 state green-industry associations have launched a new Web site, www.thelandlovers.org, to promote green industry careers to junior high and high school students. The site offers an overview of many career options, including arboriculture, garden retail, landscape installation, as well as nursery and greenhouse production.

-- Sarah

Smith & Hawken closes 2 Minneapolis stores

Smith & Hawken will close 2 of its 3 stores in the Twin-Cities area by the end of the year, the Star Tribune reported. A company spokesperson declined to say if the closings were part of a larger cutback program for Smith & Hawken.

Smith & Hawken's parent company, Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. of Marysville, Ohio, recently reported declining sales and continuing losses for the chain. In a conference call with analysts, executives described Smith & Hawken as “a drag on earnings.”

-- Sarah